Did you catch the breathtaking Northern Lights in May and October, where vibrant aurora displays lit up skies around the globe? These recent events may be just the beginning of a period where the Northern Lights could grace the skies over the U.S., Europe, and even farther afield, according to an expert aurora chaser who can predict these dazzling displays with remarkable accuracy, sometimes down to the minute.
Typically, the aurora is most visible in polar regions at latitudes around 70 degrees north and south. However, during intense geomagnetic activity—often caused by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which are massive clouds of charged particles from the sun hitting Earth—the auroral oval can expand dramatically. This can push the Northern Lights to be visible as far south as 25 degrees from the equator.
Northern Lights and Geomagnetic Storms
Geomagnetic activity is measured by the Kp index, with higher numbers indicating stronger solar storms that produce more intense auroras. Wil Cheung, an experienced aurora chaser who provides precise aurora alerts via his popular Wil Photography channels on Instagram and Facebook, explains, “If you look back at decades of data, you’ll notice that during the solar maximum—when the sun is at its peak activity over a three to four-year period—you usually see about 10 significant Kp 8 and Kp 9 storms.” Cheung points out that we’ve only experienced two or three such storms during the current solar cycle so far.
According to NOAA, during a Kp 8 to Kp 9 storm, “the aurora will shift further toward the equator and become especially bright and active, creating optimal conditions for aurora viewing. Under these conditions, the auroral oval expands, allowing the Northern Lights to be visible overhead from the northern U.S. states.”
Even more frequent are Kp 6 and Kp 7 storms, which also push the aurora further away from the poles. NOAA notes that at this level of geomagnetic activity, “the aurora could become visible from the northern edge of the U.S.,” offering even more opportunities to witness this natural wonder.
With solar activity on the rise, it’s worth keeping an eye on the skies, as more awe-inspiring aurora displays could be on the horizon.
Northern Lights: Solar Maximum
The recent surge in aurora sightings at lower latitudes is linked to the sun reaching its solar maximum, the peak of its 11-year solar cycle. During this period, solar activity—including sunspots and solar flares—intensifies, leading to more frequent and powerful geomagnetic storms. These storms increase the likelihood of vibrant Northern Lights displays across regions far from the poles.
What makes this solar maximum particularly notable is its heightened intensity compared to the last peak in 2013. As a result, we are witnessing more frequent and vivid auroras at latitudes much farther south than usual. This trend is expected to continue over the next six months to a year, offering increased chances to catch these stunning light shows in regions where they are rarely seen. The current solar maximum could be one of the most active in decades, making it an exciting time for aurora enthusiasts worldwide.
For Wil Cheung, the awe-inspiring Northern Lights displays witnessed in May and October are only a preview of what’s to come. “I think some people would be surprised to know that the events in May and October were not isolated occurrences, and that we could see five or six more similar events,” he explained. Cheung’s confidence stems from analyzing data on geomagnetic storms from previous solar cycles, suggesting that the frequency of these dazzling light shows will continue to rise as we move deeper into the current solar maximum.
Northern Lights: Real-Time Forecasting
Wil Cheung has mastered the art of aurora forecasting, having witnessed the Northern Lights an incredible 370 times over the past decade. However, he cautions that spotting the aurora isn’t as simple as stepping outside and glancing at the sky by chance. “The first thing to realize about the Northern Lights is that it’s not something you can just walk out of your house and see without preparation,” he says, emphasizing the importance of planning and using precise data.
Cheung relies on real-time information from satellites and specialized apps that give him remarkably accurate forecasts, sometimes down to the minute. This level of accuracy is achieved by understanding when and how geomagnetic storms occur. Most forecasts, like those from NOAA’s Aurora Dashboard, rely on models rather than real-time data, which is where Cheung’s expertise shines.
Northern Lights: Key Moments
Accurately predicting auroral displays hinges on knowing when a coronal mass ejection (CME) will hit Earth and interact with its atmosphere. The only advance warning comes from NASA’s DSCOVR and ACE satellites, positioned about a million miles from Earth. These satellites measure the speed and intensity of CMEs, which helps forecasters gauge when and how the solar wind will affect Earth. Depending on the CME’s velocity, they provide 15-30 minutes’ notice before a geomagnetic storm begins.
Because of this short window, real-time aurora forecasting is often only possible minutes before an event. “There are key moments in the cycle of the aurora to be outside for,” Cheung explains. “Satellites help with real-time predictions, but you also need low light pollution, clear skies, and dark-adapted eyes—it’s a challenge to be in the right place at the right time. Don’t expect the Northern Lights to come to you.”
Cheung’s highly accurate predictions, aimed primarily at those in the U.K., offer invaluable guidance for when the aurora might grace local skies.
Northern Lights: Best Places and Times
Even though auroras have been visible at lower latitudes recently, the most reliable way to witness the Northern Lights remains traveling north between September and March, when the nights are long and dark. The top destinations for viewing include Alaska, northern Canada, Greenland, and northern Scandinavia (Norway, Finland, Sweden, and Iceland), where the auroral oval— the area of most frequent activity— is strongest.
“That’s where the auroral oval sits,” says Cheung. He also notes that while recent “super storms” have been impressive, they remain rare. “If you want to maximize your chances of seeing the Northern Lights, then you really have to head north—and September and March, around the equinoxes, are the best months.”
So, for those chasing the stunning beauty of the Northern Lights, preparation and location are key. Wishing you clear skies and wide eyes!
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