Hurricane Florence is moving quickly and is expected to become a category 4 by Tuesday. It is headed towards the US East Coast and could cause serious damage.
While Florence is not quite a threat just yet it seems to be progressing as expected which is not necessarily a good thing. Florence is generating swells that are affecting the East Coast even now. These swells for those who may not realize can produce life-threatening current conditions at beaches along their paths.
Typical for this far out in time, we cannot pinpoint the areas that will see the worst impacts from storm surge, wind and rainfall flooding.
The key to Florence’s path hinges on the strength and westward extent of a dome of high pressure aloft, which is expected to develop and strengthen north of Florence over the western Atlantic Ocean Monday and Tuesday.
That high-pressure ridge is expected to be strong enough and far enough west to push Florence near the Southeast or mid-Atlantic coast mid- to late-week.
Unfortunately, the previous scenario of Florence staying far enough out to sea to minimize an East Coast impact is now very unlikely.
Right now we know that peak impacts are going to most likely occur on Thursday and areas from SE Virginia to the Carolinas could end up seeing impact first. With that being said, states further south should also prepare. Georgia and Northern Florida may also be affected. The heavy rain it brings could last for days on end and flooding might occur.
Florence has been growing with such intensity that NHC actually made their most aggressive RIF since the 90s. While things could change between the time this hurricane makes its way to the East Coast we should prepare for the worst. This kind of thing is not to be taken lightly.
“Our top intensity models unanimously predict strengthening of Florence into a Category 3 or 4 hurricane by Tuesday, and the storm is also expected to increase in size. Florence will still be embedded in a relatively dry atmosphere, so it is possible the storm could suffer from dry air intrusions that would interfere with the intensification process, but this will likely not occur while the wind shear is light.”
For more information on Florence please check out the video below. Please keep updated on this topic especially if you live in an area that may be affected. Stay as safe as possible and pass along the information above.